Monte Carlo Simulation Fundamentals
In this course you will learn to use Monte Carlo simulations to better your decision making when dealing with uncertainty.
What you'll learn
Do you need to make a difficult decision about some uncertain future outcome? Maybe you need to estimate a project cost or schedule, or create a forecast for when your agile-developed software product can be delivered to customers. In this course, Monte Carlo Simulation Fundamentals, you’ll learn how to model these and other uncertainties using a Monte Carlo simulation model in Microsoft Excel. First, you’ll learn why you’ll want to use Monte Carlo simulation to solve estimation problems. Then, you’ll learn how to create a Monte Carlo simulation from scratch, and how to use pre-built Monte Carlo simulation models. Finally, you’ll discover some more complicated problems that commercial Monte Carlo simulation products can solve. By the end of this course, you’ll know what a Monte Carlo simulation is, why it’s used, and how to create your own Monte Carlo simulation using the built-in functions inside Microsoft Excel.
Table of contents
- Seven Steps to Model-Building 5m
- Demo: Simulate Rolling a Pair of Dice 9m
- An "Accurate" Model 2m
- Standard Deviation and the 68-95-99.7 Rule 2m
- One and Two Standard Deviations 3m
- Three Standard Deviations 1m
- Estimating a Standard Deviation 3m
- Seven Steps to Building a 5-Task Project Schedule 4m
- Module Summary 2m
- Explore Statistical PERT® Beta Edition 4m
- Introducing the BETA.DIST and BETA.INV Functions 1m
- The Beta.DIST and BETA.INV Arguments 2m
- See SPERT Beta Edition's Shape Arguments 3m
- Use SPERT Beta Edition to Choose Good-Fitting Shape Arguments 6m
- Demo: Convert Your Model to Use BETA.INV 8m
- Demo: Examine the Task Histogram for the Beta Distribution 4m
- Module Summary 1m
- The Final Exam 6m
- Review the Final Exam's 5-Activity Model 2m
- The Triangular Distribution 3m
- Introducing Palisade's @Risk Excel Plug-in 4m
- Demo: Palisade's @Risk Excel Plug-in 7m
- Introducing Vose Software's ModelRisk Excel Plug-in 2m
- Demo: Vose Software's ModelRisk Excel Plug-in 5m
- Course Summary and Congratulations! 2m
About the author
William W. Davis works in the IT industry promoting personal and organizational agility and sharing innovative tools/techniques with fellow agilists, project managers, developers, functional managers, and organizational leaders. William has 30 years experience working in IT as a software developer and technical project manager for numerous IT projects. More recently, though, William is a Scrum Master and an organizational agilist -- creating/delivering customized agile/Scrum training, offering a... more