Do you need to make a difficult decision about some uncertain future outcome? Maybe you need to estimate a project cost or schedule, or create a forecast for when your agile-developed software product can be delivered to customers. In this course, Monte Carlo Simulation Fundamentals, you’ll learn how to model these and other uncertainties using a Monte Carlo simulation model in Microsoft Excel. First, you’ll learn why you’ll want to use Monte Carlo simulation to solve estimation problems. Then, you’ll learn how to create a Monte Carlo simulation from scratch, and how to use pre-built Monte Carlo simulation models. Finally, you’ll discover some more complicated problems that commercial Monte Carlo simulation products can solve. By the end of this course, you’ll know what a Monte Carlo simulation is, why it’s used, and how to create your own Monte Carlo simulation using the built-in functions inside Microsoft Excel.
Course Overview Hi, I'm William W. Davis, and welcome to my course, Monte Carlo Simulation Fundamentals. I'm a Scrum master and IT project manager living in South Florida. Estimating the finish date of a plan‑driven project is hard because the duration of each task on the project schedule is uncertain, and forecasting major release dates for agile‑developed software is hard too because you don't know how much work your agile team might complete in future iterations. Monte Carlo simulation brings insight into these kinds of uncertainties. This course will introduce you to Monte Carlo simulation using Microsoft Excel's built‑in statistical functions. To get started, you just need native Excel. In this course, here's what you'll learn. Understand what Monte Carlo simulation is and why it's used. Discover how to model uncertainty using four popular probability distributions. Build a simple Monte Carlo simulation model using a seven‑step process. Evaluate Excel's histogram chart to make informed forecasts. By the end of this course, you'll know how to create a basic Monte Carlo simulation model that represents uncertain future outcomes of interest to you. Before beginning this course, you should be familiar with basic statistical terms and have a working knowledge of Microsoft Excel. Please join me to learn how you can create probabilistic forecasts with the Monte Carlo Simulation Fundamentals course, right here on Pluralsight.