Estimating and Forecasting in an Agile Environment

Paths

Estimating and Forecasting in an Agile Environment

Authors: William Davis, Wilvie Anora, Eliska Elaine Que, Sarper Horata, Michael Krasowski

In this skill path, the learner will develop decision-making skill in assessing uncertain product development efforts, then modeling those uncertainties using different... Read more

How to easily estimate projects and products Forecasting for Agile teams Monte Carlo Simulation for Agile forecasting How to forecast the #NoEstimates way Sharing effective visual forecasts How to forecast answers to Agile team questions How to make your forecasts more reliable

Pre-requisites

No prerequisite knowledge needed

Beginner

In this beginner section, learners will discover the importance of estimating; distinguish between estimates, predictions and forecasts; and gain basic skill in modeling uncertain agile development efforts using a pre-built, Microsoft Excel-based statistical model.

Easily Estimate Projects and Products

by William Davis

Mar 14, 2019 / 2h 50m

2h 50m

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Description

Have you ever had a difficult time creating a project schedule or budget or been unsure how to forecast when new features will be ready for your agile-developed product? If so, this is the perfect course for you. In this course, Easily Estimate Projects and Products, you will learn how to easily create estimates for any uncertainty that has common, bell-shaped risk characteristics, like how much a project will cost or how long it will take to develop features on your product backlog. First, you’ll learn the difference between estimates, predictions, and forecasts and why forecasts are superior to predictions. Next, you'll explore how to easily create probabilistic estimates using Statistical PERT. Finally, you’ll discover how Statistical PERT models your project and product uncertainties using the normal probability distribution curve. When you’re finished with this course, you'll not only know how to use Statistical PERT to confidently estimate your project and product uncertainties, but you'll know how to modify Statistical PERT to create even better forecasts in the future. Software required: Microsoft Excel 2010 or later.

Table of contents
  1. Course Overview
  2. Why Do You Estimate Anything?
  3. Predicting vs. Forecasting (And Why Forecasting Is Better)
  4. Introducing Statistical PERT Normal Edition
  5. Using Statistical PERT
  6. Understanding a Statistical PERT Template
  7. Modifying a Statistical PERT Template

Intermediate

In this intermediate section, learners will focus on creating forecasts using a variety of statistical approaches for modeling the uncertain nature of agile product development efforts. Learners will also know how to effectively share their forecasts with key.

Forecasting for Agile Teams

by William Davis

Sep 11, 2019 / 2h 47m

2h 47m

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Description

In this course, Forecasting for Agile Teams, you will create and share forecasts for your agile software development effort. First, you will learn why forecasting is important. Next, you will discover how to forecast using Microsoft Excel and a freely-licensed spreadsheet file called Statistical PERT. Finally, you will explore how to improve your forecasts and effectively share them with stakeholders. When you're finished with this course, you will have the skills and knowledge of agile forecasting so you can forecast future agile-developed products.

Table of contents
  1. Course Overview
  2. Why Do We Forecast Agile Development Efforts?
  3. Estimate Your Product Backlog
  4. Using Statistical PERT’s Agile Forecast Tab
  5. Creating More Refined Forecasts
  6. Improving Your Forecasts
  7. Communicating Your Forecasts to Stakeholders

Monte Carlo Simulation Fundamentals

by William Davis

Oct 27, 2020 / 3h 28m

3h 28m

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Description

Do you need to make a difficult decision about some uncertain future outcome? Maybe you need to estimate a project cost or schedule, or create a forecast for when your agile-developed software product can be delivered to customers. In this course, Monte Carlo Simulation Fundamentals, you’ll learn how to model these and other uncertainties using a Monte Carlo simulation model in Microsoft Excel. First, you’ll learn why you’ll want to use Monte Carlo simulation to solve estimation problems. Then, you’ll learn how to create a Monte Carlo simulation from scratch, and how to use pre-built Monte Carlo simulation models. Finally, you’ll discover some more complicated problems that commercial Monte Carlo simulation products can solve. By the end of this course, you’ll know what a Monte Carlo simulation is, why it’s used, and how to create your own Monte Carlo simulation using the built-in functions inside Microsoft Excel.

Table of contents
  1. Course Overview
  2. Introduction to Monte Carlo Simulation
  3. Understand Commonly Used Probability Distributions
  4. Monte Carlo Simulation Foundations
  5. Build Your First Monte Carlo Simulation Model
  6. Add a Histogram and Statistics to Your Model
  7. Using a Native Excel Monte Carlo Simulation Model
  8. Build More Complex Monte Carlo Simulation Models

Forecast the #NoEstimates Way

by Wilvie Anora

Jun 30, 2021 / 2h 25m

2h 25m

Start Course
Description

Managers are faced with many challenges and inefficiencies, particularly in estimating or forecasting the amount of time or work it takes to complete a task or project. In this course, Forecast the #NoEstimates Way, you’ll learn to forecast using the #NoEstimates way by using bootstrapping as a forecasting technique which you can apply using a pre-built and a blank excel model. First, you’ll learn what an estimate is according to the #NoEstimates movement. Next, you’ll discover about bootstrapping as a forecasting technique including what it can and cannot do. Finally, you’ll learn how to apply bootstrapping to a pre-built and blank excel-based model. When you’re finished with this course, you’ll have the skills and knowledge of bootstrapping using excel as a forecasting technique which is needed to do forecasting through the #NoEstimates way.

Table of contents
  1. Course Overview
  2. #NoEstimates Movement
  3. Bootstrapping as a Forecasting Technique
  4. Applying Bootstrapping: Pre-built Excel-based Model
  5. Applying Bootstrapping: Blank Excel-based Model

Sharing Effective Visual Forecasts

by Eliska Elaine Que

Apr 28, 2021 / 1h 35m

1h 35m

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Description

In every project, there are several constraints and variables such as the number of people in the team, the cost of development, the timeline. Whether you are about to start a project, or in the middle of it, it’s important to have a projection of whether or not you will meet your targets. In this course, Sharing Effective Visual Forecasts, you'll learn how to create a graphical representation of your projections so viewers can easily understand your project performance. First, you’ll explore what visual forecasting is and why it’s important. Next, you’ll learn about the best practices and common pitfalls when creating visual reports. Finally, you’ll create a visual forecast and explore the best ways to share the information with your audience. When you’re finished with this course, you’ll have the skills and knowledge of Sharing Effective Visual Forecasts needed to communicate project projections within your company.

Table of contents
  1. Course Overview
  2. Getting to Know What Visual Forecasts Are
  3. Best Practices and Common Issues with Visual Forecasting
  4. Creating Visual Forecasts

Advanced

In the advanced section, learners will apply their skill to solve real-world business problems using a scenario approach to learning. Learners will also explore how structured expert judgment using the classical model can help them assess and improve the quality of expert judgment used to create estimates.

Forecast Answers to Agile Team Questions

by Sarper Horata

Sep 9, 2021 / 1h 18m

1h 18m

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Description

Utilizing an agile environment can help when determining critical estimations for your projects. In this course, Forecast Answers to Agile Team Questions, you’ll learn to make forecasts about common cases that project managers and team members face in an agile project environment. First, you’ll explore Statistical PERT and Monte Carlo simulation to estimate delivery dates. Next, you’ll discover how to apply Statistical PERT and Monte Carlo simulation to forecasting major release dates and funding planning. Finally, you’ll learn how to use Statistical PERT and Monte Carlo simulations for hard date estimation and workload determination in an agile environment. When you’re finished with this course, you’ll have the skills and knowledge of forecasting in an agile project environment with tools such as Statistical PERT and Monte Carlo simulation needed to manage projects in a more efficient manner.

Table of contents
  1. Course Overview
  2. Introduction to Agile Environment and Analysis Methods
  3. Estimating Sprint Workload and Funding Needs to Build a Product
  4. Estimating Release Features and Release Date Using SPERT and MCS

Coming Soon

Estimation Calibration: Make Your Forecasts More Reliable

Coming Soon

by Wilvie Anora

Kanban for Agile/Scrum Practitioners

by Michael Krasowski

May 28, 2020 / 2h 30m

2h 30m

Start Course
Description

In this course, Kanban for Agile/Scrum Practitioners, you will learn the skills, approaches, and techniques to advance your essential Kanban capabilities to the next level. First, you'll learn that Kanban is not a process in and of itself but is a practice that symbolizes a principle and is flexible and adaptable based on the challenge at hand and the necessary resources. Next, you'll explore different approaches to moving from both waterfall and Agile/Scrum to Kanban. For those with traditional development skills (waterfall), we will point out how Kanban alleviates all the CONs of waterfall by improving the efficiency and flexibility of feature development and provide you the necessary knowledge to help you adapt and transition from your traditional or waterfall application development methods to Kanban. Though Agile/Scrum greatly improves development over waterfall you'll discover how Kanban takes it a step further in improving product delivery. You'll also compare Scrum events with Kanban events and how Kanban will increase the workflow and productivity of development. Then, you'll go into detail on defining your value stream, managing work types, understanding what “done” means, limiting work in progress, adapting to variabilities, the benefits of cumulative flow diagrams, how to forecast future work, dealing with bottlenecks, blockers, and spikes. Finally, the course will take you through the process of implementing Kanban at your workplace. This will include developing a pilot, applying metrics, and provide the awareness to challenges that may obstruct or impede your adoption of Kanban and offer recommendations and techniques to mitigate them. When you have completed this course, you will have the skills and knowledge on how to design, execute, and deliver high-quality Kanban systems.

Table of contents
  1. Course Overview
  2. What You Will Learn
  3. Kanban 201: Taking It up a Notch
  4. Transitioning from Waterfall to Kanban
  5. Transitioning from Agile/Scrum to Kanban
  6. Managing Your Workflow
  7. Preparing for Organizational Challenges
  8. Applying Key Learning Objectives
Learning Paths

Estimating and Forecasting in an Agile Environment

  • Number of Courses8 courses
  • Duration17 hours

In this skill path, the learner will develop decision-making skill in assessing uncertain product development efforts, then modeling those uncertainties using different statistical models. After completing this path, the learner will know how to create probabilistic forecasts for agile development efforts so they can align stakeholder expectations and foster sound business decision-making.

Courses in this path

Beginner

In this beginner section, learners will discover the importance of estimating; distinguish between estimates, predictions and forecasts; and gain basic skill in modeling uncertain agile development efforts using a pre-built, Microsoft Excel-based statistical model.

Intermediate

In this intermediate section, learners will focus on creating forecasts using a variety of statistical approaches for modeling the uncertain nature of agile product development efforts. Learners will also know how to effectively share their forecasts with key.

Advanced

In the advanced section, learners will apply their skill to solve real-world business problems using a scenario approach to learning. Learners will also explore how structured expert judgment using the classical model can help them assess and improve the quality of expert judgment used to create estimates.

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